PRESS RELEASE
CARDIOL THERAPEUTICS INC. (NASDAQ: CRDL) (TSX: CRDL)
Investment research report – “Sharper focus a boost for shareholders” – released today
26th October 2022
TAG Investment Bankers is pleased to announce today the publication of a research report which covers Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: CRDL) (TSX: CRDL). Cardiol Therapeutics is a clinical-stage life sciences company focused on the research and clinical development of anti-inflammatory and anti-fibrotic therapy for the treatment of heart diseases. The company’s lead product, CardiolRx™, is a pharmaceutically manufactured oral cannabidiol formulation that is being clinically developed for use in heart diseases.
Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: CRDL) (TSX: CRDL) announced an important sharpening of its focus on Tuesday 25th October 2022, which could accelerate the approval process to address acute myocarditis and recurrent pericarditis as the LANCER trial that focused on COVID-19 is to be discontinued. CRDL not only trades at a discount to its estimated C$63m cash holdings but also boasts potential to be re-rated as an orphan drug company. Both factors argue in favour of a significantly higher valuation in our opinion – i.e. one well above the current share price.
Discontinuance of the LANCER trial, which was designed to investigate the cardioprotective properties of CardiolRx™ for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, is an important enabler for CRDL. The company noted that the trial will be discontinued due to increased vaccinations and milder variants and treatments of mild-to-moderate disease to reduce COVID-19 hospitalization resulting in a continuous decline in the number of eligible patients and lower than anticipated event rate in the study. Thus, it makes sense, in our view, to channel medical research resources elsewhere.
We believe that for investors an intense focus on orphan drugs and rare diseases should be seen as positive. Both acute myocarditis and recurrent pericarditis are orphan diseases. Two important investor arguments for drugs which address orphan diseases to generate higher shareholder value include market exclusivity for prolonged periods of time (≥ 7 years from product approval) and typically higher patient cost per treatment.
Cardiol Therapeutics Inc. in its latest release estimates that acute myocarditis affects around 54,000 people in the U.S. and recurrent pericarditis around 38,000. Average hospital charges per stay are estimated at US$110,000 and between US$20,000 and US$30,000 respectively. There are currently no FDA approved therapies for acute myocarditis and the one available for recurrent pericarditis since 2021 is cited as both costly and used primarily as a third line intervention. The company’s planned focus on these two indications appears to make medical and commercial sense.
- This report makes changes to our fair value, which we base on our revenue forecasts for 2030. In our 2nd June 2022 report “Addressing unmet heart health needs” we assumed that the LANCER trial and COVID-19 related treatments would generate C$413m in net revenue in 2030. This has now been removed from our forecasts. However, we have upgraded expectations for acute myocarditis from C$98m to C$151m and include C$24m for recurrent pericarditis. As a result, the overall revenue revision is from C$510m to C$175m.
- We base our revised US$4.00 per share fair value (formerly US$8.00) on projected acute myocarditis and recurrent pericarditis net sales revenue in 2030. We apply a peer group average EV/sales ratio of 6.1x, assuming 75% probability of success with an 8.5% discount rate.
Contact
Chris Wickham
Chief Marketing Officer
TAG Investment Bankers Ltd
Email: Chris.wickham@tagbankers.com
Tel: +4477 6465 5390
Please refer to the research report’s disclaimer which is copied in full on page 2 of this Press Release.
Disclaimer
Cardiol Therapeutics paid TAG Investment Bankers analyst Chris Wickham to produce this report. This report has been published by TAG Investment Bankers Ltd. TAG Investment Bankers Ltd do not offer personal advice, and the information referred to on our sites is not suitable for all investors. You confirm that you are a person falling within the following categories of an appropriately qualified investor and are therefore exempt from the general restriction on thecommunication of invitations or inducements to engage in investment activity on the grounds that you are, either; a high net worth individual, a sophisticated investor, an Investment Professional or a representative of a high net worth company, trust, partner- ship or association. If you are unsure whether an investment is suitable for your circumstances, we strongly encourage you to consult an FCA/SEC or other Financial Regulator in your country of residence – authorized Independent Financial Adviser before committing to any form of investment. All information and numbers are subject to change without notice. Any return on investment stated is for discussion purposes only and is based on a best-efforts basis. Under no circumstances whatsoever does it represent a fair and accurate view of actual results. Please be advised that it will change or might change in the future and that under no circumstances whatsoever can we or any of our associates, employees or partners be held responsible if the forecasted results are not met. Neither Chris Wickham nor TAG Investment Bankers is currently a registered holder of Cardiol Therapeutics shares.